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Despite Iran and the United States exchanging rounds of fire over the weekend, the Trump administration is insisting that discussions around a final deal to end the war are still set to commence, with the president himself claiming that talks will resume in Qatar on Tuesday.
However, Iran has not yet confirmed that those talks have been agreed upon.
The exchange of fire underscores the fragility of the current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), agreed upon earlier this month. The MOU sets out several key agreements between Iran and the U.S. to be followed as negotiations continue, chief among them the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts.”
The MOU is set to expire within the next two months. However, both sides can extend that deadline if they agree to do so.
As a result of the hostilities that occurred, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world’s oil is transported — significantly slowed down, potentially escalating oil prices in the next few days if normal traffic flow isn’t restored.
The Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for weekend drone and missile strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait, responding to earlier U.S. military attacks on Iranian targets. Even after these back-and-forth attacks, a U.S. official said that “nothing has been canceled” in terms of planned discussions between the two sides, and that talks between the countries “are on track.”
On Monday morning, President Donald Trump issued a Truth Social post claiming that a meeting was planned for Tuesday.
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“IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!” Trump wrote.
Shortly after, the White House announced that it was sending Steven Witkoff, special envoy to the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, to attend the discussions.
Leaders from Pakistan, which has been instrumental in the negotiations between the two sides, sought to confirm Trump’s statement, saying that talks would be held on Tuesday. However, Iranian leaders have not yet confirmed the meeting will happen.
“Although consultations with Qatar, including on following up on the implementation of the other side’s commitments, are continuing as usual, reports by some media about technical talks by the working groups being held in Doha are not confirmed,” said Iran’s Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi.
Beyond the apparent resumption of hostilities, other aspects of the MOU also appear to have been broken, including a promise that both sides will “refrain from the threat” of force against each other.
Just days after the MOU was signed, Trump threatened to resume military hostilities against Iran if fighting between Lebanon and Israel continued, claiming in a Truth Social post that Iran’s “highly paid PROXIES” were at fault. In that post, the president vowed to “hit Iran very hard again.”
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